Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Daily commentary

Credit spreads are following the equity market stronger this morning.  I'll leave the debate about whether this rally is for real or a dead cat bounce to more highly paid prognosticators.  

Geithner's comments on Charlie Rose and Citi's 'profit' are the most frequently cited reasons.  I intentionally used the quote marks around Citi's profit.....as almost anyone could show a profit if they didn't include writedowns, were allowed to dispose of bad debt, and had the ability to raise government guaranteed debt at almost a 0% rate.  

The lower Vix seems to have encouraged more issuers to come to market.  We saw ~$5B in non FDIC debt issued yesterday alone.  This brings March to ~$47B (vs Feb $94B and Jan ~$117B [includes FDIC debt]).  So far today, ETN and DIS are in the market with new issues.  For details, on Bloomberg type NIM3

The oft quoted, most liquid, credit index is the CDX (now series 11).  It's currently trading at a historically wide basis of 50bps (with the index being rich vs intrinsics).  You occasionally see odd technicals like this in advance of a calendar roll (mentioned yesterday).

The ICE has rolled out it's CDS clearinghouse this week.  This is REALLY BIG NEWS in the credit markets.  It may not immediately garner all the liquidity but it certainly has everyone's focus....including, most importantly, the Fed.  This is the largest single change to the credit market trading in years so please take your time to get up to speed on it.

  

 

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