Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Daily Commentary

Supply, supply, supply.  While the deals largely went well, spreads are slightly weaker this morning.    

Yesterday saw $11.5 in non-FDIC guaranteed issuance.  MSFT, BUD, SPG, USB, SG&E, SO, ALL, BDX, KCRC, BKH and MNPIPE all came to market.  Microsoft had ~$10B in demand alone for it's $3.75B deal.  For the most part, spreads have held in since the deals were priced.  However, some of the recent financial issues have started to weaken a bit.  I'm also hearing that the recent CVS and CBS deals are weaker.

SRE, EQT and AEE are in the market today.   

While that number is indeed a huge figure, it's important to remember that it is still less than the 'natural demand' created by bonds maturing, coupons being paid and inflows into credit mutual funds; depending on who's math you use, so far this month, supply is running ~50% of the estimated demand.     

As you've read here, the bank's capital raise is largely becoming an equity story with raises from COF, USB, BBT (did a debt deal that's struggling), PFG, BK, and KEY.  Let's not forget the enormous fees that all these banks are earning by underwriting equity and debt new issues. 

MBIA released earnings today.  Debt spreads held firm as their AAA rated reference entity was unchanged with the sector and their AA rated reference entity was only slightly weaker.

Germany is proposing a 'bad bank' solution for it's financial bailout.

It will be interesting to watch the fallout from the first ever default of an Islamic sukuk bond.   If a hand is cut off for the crime of theft, I wonder what type of sentence a $100mm default will elicit.  

 

    

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