Thursday, June 25, 2009

Daily Commentary

Lower volatility and firmer swap spreads are trumping weaker global equities, for now, and spreads are slightly better on the morning.

Reaction in the credit markets to yesterday's FOMC decision was largely muted as their asset purchase programs remained unchanged.

So far, I only see a smaller new deal from Jeffries (as an issuer) coming to market today.

Given the U.S. victory over Spain yesterday, I thought I'd revisit one of my favorite pair trades. Yes, we can beat the #1 football team in the world....but can we trade better than Campbell's Soup? The answer is no.....CPB is still trading through (i.e. viewed as lower risk) than the United States government.

Frankly, I'm surprised that AIG is trading better today. Yes, they did 'pay back' ~$25B to the Fed. However, I would have hoped they could do it the old fashioned way by selling a division.....and not by monkeying around with their capital structure (paying off debt with preferred shares).

If you cannot recall the exact date that the OTS took over WaMu....or when the TALF details were first announced...the NY Fed has put together this comprehensive timeline of all the crisis events. It's hard to read it without wincing at each event as you recall them.

This is a great piece, and commentary, on how Goldman views it's own risk and the foibles of using VaR.

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