Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Beer, fried chicken and video games

Again today, optimism seems to prevail as the headlines, to this reader at least, seemed pretty grim. Yet spreads are opening firmly tighter to start the day.

German industrial production was weaker than expected...yet the rest of Europe, lead by Italy of all places, was stronger.

ECB President Trichet used the term "systematic" when discussing the current crisis in Europe.

A German bund auction received fewer bids than the amount on offer and technically failed.

The Chinese tariff bill passed the Senate causing the Chinese official news agency to quickly warn/remind us of the Smoot-Hawley tariff act which many feel lengthened the Great Depression in the 20s and 30s. For an eye opening and exciting read of Chinese offensive capabilities, be sure to read this November 2010 article from Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker.

Many hedge funds are breathing a bit easier this morning on the news that the threshold for 'systematically important' institutions will be $50b. This exempts most hedge funds from the increased regulatory scrutiny that comes along with that 'systematic' label.

The credit strategy group at JPMorgan recently raised their asset allocation in credit to neutral, from underweight, citing attractive absolute yields, inflows into the sector, some "hints at progress" in Europe and ahead of anticipated year end allocations into this "best asset class."

The team at UBS has highlighted a divergence in trends that may be applicable for our equity brethren. They note that while the trend of dividend increases is actually declining (3 straight quarters), the trend in equity buybacks (highlighted by Berkshire Hathaway) has actually remained robust increasing for the last 8 quarters.

For you Red Sox fans...or haters...the finger pointing has begun (in this Boston Globe article). Starting pitchers Beckett, Lester and Lackey were "drinking beer, eating fast-food fried chicken, and playing video games in the clubhouse during games while their teammates tried to salvage a once-promising season." The "consequences were apparent as their body fat appeared to increase and pitching skills eroded."





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