Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Them there CDSSers

I'd be regurgitating old information were I to cite the drivers of today's malaise in the risk markets. Have no fear, the Fed will "continue to closely monitor developments" according to Bernanke at Congress today. I was really hoping he would stand up and say "this is John Galt speaking."

The New York Fed released a very interesting study about CDS trading. Some of their observations and conclusions may come as no surprise to someone that has actively traded them while other points were long suspected but never confirmed. In what is becoming patently obvious at the moment, the report noted "little evidence that dealers hedge large trades" and that they "typically hold on to risk taken on in customer trades for some time." Also, only 500-100 unique participants trade on a daily basis (in single name CDS) and over half the transactions occur between the G14 dealers. The 'majority' of single name CDS traded "less than once a day" while the "most actively traded changed markedly over our three month sample." All in all, it's a must read.

Dick Bove released an assertive report stating that bank stock declines are overdone and should be bought. You can read his brief rationale here (via Dealbreaker.com).

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